Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, corporate earnings and U.S. retail sales data will offer insights into the health of the consumer. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is set to speak, and economic data from China and the UK will be closely monitored. The key points to note this week include:
- Beginning of Corporate Earnings Season The third quarter corporate earnings season is commencing, with several major U.S. companies expected to announce improved profit growth after a lackluster first half of the year. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be one of the first major companies to announce earnings on Wednesday after the market close. Shares of these companies have been driving the stock market rally this year. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) are both slated to announce their earnings before the market opens on Tuesday. Several regional banks are also scheduled to release their earnings this week. On Friday, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), and Citigroup (NYSE: C) announced better-than-expected quarterly profits, buoyed by higher interest rates. Other notable companies reporting this week include healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) on Tuesday before market open, consumer goods behemoth Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) on Wednesday before market open, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) on Wednesday after market close, and Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) on Thursday before market open.
- U.S. Data and Fed Remarks Beyond corporate earnings, U.S. retail sales figures for September, set to be released on Tuesday, will offer insights into the strength of consumer spending. Economists predict a modest 0.2% increase in retail sales from the previous month. Stronger-than-expected figures might intensify concerns about a rebound in inflation, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Market observers will be keenly watching remarks from Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, as he speaks at the New York Economic Club on Thursday. Several regional Fed Presidents are also expected to participate this week, including Patrick Harker, Thomas Barkin, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, and Lori Logan. Federal Reserve board members Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller are also slated to speak.
- Oil Volatility Oil prices surged nearly 6% on Friday, marking the largest weekly rise for Brent crude since February. This was attributed to investors pricing in potential conflicts in the Middle East after Israel initiated airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. While the Middle East conflicts have largely remained insulated from impacting global oil and gas supplies and Israel isn’t a major producer, investors and market analysts are evaluating the potential implications for supplies from neighboring major oil-producing regions. Another factor pushing prices higher was the U.S. imposing its first sanctions on Russian oil tanker owners shipping oil at prices above $60 per barrel on Thursday. This move was aimed at addressing loopholes in mechanisms designed to penalize Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. Russia, being the second-largest oil producer and a major exporter, might see supply constraints due to stricter scrutiny of U.S. shipments.
- Chinese Data Market observers will be scrutinizing a series of economic data from China on Wednesday to gauge whether the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is stabilizing. Concerns continue to loom over the impact of China’s real estate sector crisis and the magnitude of additional stimulus that Beijing might have to inject. Economists are forecasting a modest 4.4% year-on-year growth in GDP, which is still below Beijing’s annual growth target of around 5%. Separate reports on industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment are anticipated to indicate mild improvements.
- UK Data The UK is set to release its latest employment report on Tuesday, followed by September inflation figures on Wednesday. This will be the last data release ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming November meeting. UK inflation has surpassed the BoE’s expectations for most of this year, but it decelerated more than anticipated in August, catching markets off guard. Nevertheless, it remains significantly above the BoE’s 2% target. The previous employment report indicated a cooling UK labor market, but wage growth remained robust. Last month, the BoE narrowly decided to hold rates, hinting that peak rates might have already been reached. However, it signaled readiness to take additional measures if needed to curb inflation.